Technical analysis: What to expect from the correction?

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bitcoin-analysis

Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating in a correction for the past few weeks after reaching the new $42k ATH price.

You can see how the daily RSI has been behaving in history from the Bitstamp all-time daily chart above, where RSI is at the bottom. You can see that no matter if it is a bull market or a bear market, it is expected that the RSI goes to 30 or lower from time to time.

Bitstamp all-time weekly chart with the RSI at the bottom. From this, you can see how the weekly RSI has been behaving in history. You can see that the RSI is very high now.

Let’s make a few conclusions from these charts above before we continue to see what the situation is at the moment.

  • Daily RSI goes to 30 or below from time to time.
  • If the previous down move on daily RSI has stopped at 50, then the next down move on daily RSI is more likely to reach 30 or below.
  • When weekly RSI reaches this high level, it won’t usually last for a long time before it turns down for a bit.
  • When daily RSI turns down from a top where weekly RSI has been very high like this, daily RSI has a higher probability of reaching 30 or below.
  • When there has been a red weekly candle while weekly RSI has been this high, it has always meant that a local medium term top is in.
  • As long as the weekly RSI stays above 50, the bull market is in good health.

These conclusions will look even better, especially on the weekly chart, if we do not care that much about the price action that happened before the $1.1k top in 2013. The reason being that bitcoin was so small back then that the money needed to cause those kinds of extreme moves was minimal compared to what would be required to generate similar extreme moves today.

Daily chart with more recent price action. Daily RSI is at 59 now. 2021 yearly open is at $29k. It seems likely that daily RSI would need more time to go lower before the correction is over, and the market is ready to keep going up.

If we consolidate long enough on this level, then the price doesn’t even have to make a lower low below the recent $31k low, and daily RSI could go to 30 or below. The yearly open is a strong support and quite close now at $29k, so that could be a good target for the correction.

If we start to squeeze the margin long positions during the correction, then a downward spike to $24k or even $20k can happen. I would expect a fast bounce back above the $29k yearly open in this case.

If the bitcoin price drops to $20k-24k and the bounce won’t have the strength to get back above the $29k yearly open, then that is a good sign that we are facing a multi-month long correction before the bull market can continue pushing prices higher.

If daily RSI reaches only 50 during this correction and the price starts making new highs, I suspect that the market will not yet have a lot of strength to make significant new ATH. But of course in these FOMO conditions the market can surprise.

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