Are we heading towards the next bitcoin bull market?

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We did indeed go down like I wrote in my previous analysis, but the great moving average from 50 weeks has been giving choppy signals past few weeks. I knew it won’t work forever as good as it has been working so far and now the day has come. It’s time to look elsewhere for confirmation on what is likely to happen next. I have charted gold many years and tested my bitcoin trading methods on it. Gold is in many ways similar asset to bitcoin and ultimately you can use these principles to trade almost anything that has a liquid market place (exchange).

Like we can see the weekly closed back above the SMA50 (simple moving average from 50 weeks) and then back below it. We didn’t make a new high above the dashed line, which was one condition I wrote about on the previous analysis that would change my mind to bullish.

Now based on this chart it looks bearish since we closed again below the weekly SMA50 (and weekly SMA100), but I have reasons to believe we can’t trust these signals that much now. It might be better to look at monthly moving averages for better confirmation.

Here we have weekly and monthly charts with the same indicators; monthly moving averages from 6/12/24/36… months or half a year is the shortest one and then one to eight year averages follows.

As we can see from the weekly chart we are at a very crucial point at the moment. Price is right below the yellow 62% fibonacci level from $3k to $14k and right below the 1 year and 2 year moving averages.

You can also see an important horizontal support area marked with dashed lines on the chart. Good news is that we have a wick to the middle line of this area at the moment. Price also almost reached 3 year moving average.

I think the next monthly close will be important. If we can pump from here a little bit more and close the monthly over the 1 year and 2 year moving averages, then I think it is likely, that we will rally strongly when the new year starts.

One year average is crossing the two year average. If it happens it sets these averages in the right order from shortest to longest and is a good indication for a possible start for a big up trend. You can see this from the gold charts below.

There are more yearly averages showing on the later gold chart since it has more history. I suspect that, if we get a good monthly close for new years then we might be in the grey box in the first gold chart.

If we close the monthly below the 1 year and 2 year averages then there is a chance that we are facing more down possibly to the 4 year average at about $5k.

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