Technical analysis 2.7.2020: Bitcoin price STILL inside a tight range

bitcoin-analysis

Yep, the price of bitcoin has flatlined, no heart rate anymore, it is dead. But maybe it will wake up soon. 🙂

Weekly chart with yearly opens, the most important moving averages, RSI (relative strength index) at the bottom of the chart and some possibly important shorter term horizontal levels. A more detailed explanation of these can be found from the chart.

There really isn’t much to say here other than to focus on the most important things in play here and repeat what I wrote last time.

‘We’ve had a lot of weekly candles with bodies close to the important $10.5k level. This looks like consolidation near the top which is mildly bullish, but more importantly we are still below the $10.5k level and consolidating strongly inside a well defined range.

Top of the range is $10.5k level and the bottom of the range is the 2020 yearly open at $7160. Shorter term range top level is the same $10.5k, but bottom level is closer at about $8.7k where we also have recent weekly candle bodies bottoms and the big moving average from 50 weeks (dotted yellow).

It’s easy to predict that if $10.5k breaks we are going up, probably at least to $13880 where the 2018 yearly open is before a retrace.

What comes to possible downside I’m inclined to think that if weekly closes below this $8.7k, then we have a likely chance to go to the 2020 yearly open at $7160. After close below $8.7k there could be a bounce before continuing down.

If we see a fast crash to $8k or even $7k then it will probably be a big enough long squeeze and the price can recover and break $10.5k next.

I do not believe we will see a price below $7k. The 2020 yearly open will most likely hold in the weekly chart with the moving average from 100 weeks (dotted blue). The huge margin call cascade to $3.8k wiped enough margin longs so the market has no reason to give so good buying opportunities anymore.’

What I can add here is that usually the longer the flatlining lasts, the stronger the first following move is. I could see a fast crash to $7k to wipe out all the high leverage longers and then a quick rise above the $10.5k level.

But it is also possible that the price will just start to climb up from here and then pick up power after $10.5k breaks. Like I said, I do not believe we are going to go below $7k, at least not with a weekly close below $7160.

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