Technical analysis 17.11.2020: Do we need a retrace?

Share this article:
Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on whatsapp
Share on telegram
bitcoin-analysis

As I predicted the big resistance at $13880, the 2018 yearly open, was not that big of a resistance after all because of how slowly the price rose to it.

Last time I wrote;

We just hit the 2018 yearly open at $13880 which stopped the rise back in June 2019. The rise to this yearly open has been so slow and steady that I am sceptical to think that it would be a big resistance.

And;

‘Getting above this yearly open at $13880 with a daily and then weekly close will most likely lead to slow acceleration of this bull market, but the power can surprise many.’

The speed of the rise tells if the buying is getting overheated. If you are trying to hunt a correction in a bull market, the most likely spot is after strong FOMO (fear of missing out) buying. Fast sprints need to correct and take a breather.

So how do we know if the buying is overheated? We can use the weekly RSI (bottom of the chart) with the 85 level. As we can see from the history of the bitcoin market, this 85 level has been a pretty good level to determine if the price rise is getting too fast. I have marked these kinds of FOMO tops with white arrows on the chart above.

You need something else too to make the odds little better, for example a good horizontal resistance level from the history. This could for instance be an old all time high price. All time high price is now at $19666.

If the weekly RSI rises to 85 or above while price is close to the old all time high, then the fast rise combined with the resistance level might give us enough selling pressure to turn the buying momentum and give us a retrace. A good target for a retrace has usually been the white moving average from 20 weeks.

It should be clear by now that I think that we are in a bull market and that down moves will only be retraces, counter trend moves. The big trend is up. I have been bullish since the margin call cascade bottom in March and I am still very bullish. You can read my analysis from the past like The biggest margin call cascade in the history of bitcoin or Why bitcoin is one of the best investments in the world today and why technical analysis works (simply explained).

If you try to catch a counter trend move, make sure you have a plan to buy back if things don’t go as planned. I am not sharing my detailed trading plans. If you are Michael Saylor and want me to trade your bitcoins, I can maybe think about it.

Related articles
Start the discussion
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Follow Coinmotion on Twitter for the latest news!

 

Tilaa uutiskirjeemme
Haluatko kuulla ensimmäisten joukossa tuoteuutuuksistamme, saada super hyper erikoistarjouksia sekä oppia kryptovaluuttasektorista lisää eksklusiivisten markkinaraporttiemme kautta? Haluaisimme lähettää sinulle sähköpostia silloin ja tällöin – ei kuitenkaan liian usein – eli jos haluat päästä etuihin kiinni, täytä tietosi alapuolelle. Pysytään yhteyksissä! Oletko jo Coinmotionin käyttäjä? Voit muuttaa tilaustasi myös tilin asetuksissa.
Tilaa uutiskirjeemme täyttämällä tietosi
Lisätietoja tietojen käsittelystä löydät tietosuojalausekkeestamme
Suscríbete al boletín de noticias de Coinmotion
¿Quieres ser el primero en enterarte de nuestras novedades, recibir ofertas mega buenas y aprender más sobre el sector de las criptomonedas a través de informes exclusivos de mercado? Nos gustaría enviarte un email de vez en cuando – no demasiado a menudo – así que por favor rellena tus datos abajo. ¡Estamos en contacto! ¿Ya eres usuario de Coinmotion? Puedes gestionar tu suscripción a través de la configuración de la cuenta.
Suscríbete ahora rellenando tus datos aquí
Responsable del fichero: Coinmotion Oy. Finalidad: envío de información sobre productos y servicios propios al suscrito. Legitimación: consentimiento. Destinatarios: No se comunicarán los datos a terceros. Derechos: acceder, rectificar y suprimir los datos, así como otros derechos, como se explica en la información adicional. Puede consultar información adicional y detallada en nuestra Política de Privacidad.

Subscribe to Coinmotion Newsletter

Would you like to be the first one to hear about our product updates, receive super hyper special offers and learn more about cryptocurrencies through our exclusive market reports? We are happy to send you an email every now and then – not too often – so please fill your information below. Let’s stay in touch!

Are you already a Coinmotion user? You can also manage your subscription via account settings.

Subscribe now by filling your details here

Responsible for the file: Prasos Oy. Purpose: sending information about own products and services to the undersigned. Legitimation: consent. Recipients: The data will not be communicated to third parties. Rights: access, rectify and delete data, as well as other rights, as explained in the additional information. You can consult additional and detailed information in our Privacy Policy
Subscribe to Coinmotion Newsletter
Would you like to be the first one to hear about our product updates, receive super hyper special offers and learn more about cryptocurrencies through our exclusive market reports? We are happy to send you an email every now and then – not too often – so please fill your information below. Let’s stay in touch! Are you already a Coinmotion user? You can also manage your subscription via account settings.
Subscribe now by filling your details here
Responsible for the file: Coinmotion Oy. Purpose: sending information about own products and services to the undersigned. Legitimation: consent. Recipients: The data will not be communicated to third parties. Rights: access, rectify and delete data, as well as other rights, as explained in the additional information. You can consult additional and detailed information in our Privacy Policy