On previous analysis I wrote;
“On weekly chart we have clear short term range formed, marked with dotted lines. Weekly close above or below would define the start for the mid-term move most likely.”
“If we start closing daily candles above the orange 2 year average and then the weekly top range line then I will change my mind to more bullish. In this case capitulation or any kind of down move would probably be cancelled and we could very well start a strong rally.”
Now let’s see what happened.
Here we have weekly and daily chart with the same tools. Monthly moving averages from 6 months, 1, 2, 3… years from top to bottom. They are in the right order at the moment. You can also see the weekly range I mentioned with the dotted white lines.
The pink boxes show these daily closes I mentioned, that would turn me bullish and likely lead to a strong rally. Traders had time to go long, if they were paying attention.
Now you can see from the daily chart, that we are holding above the white 6 month average, consolidating near the top. The probability for continued rally from here is quite high while the probability for deep retrace this early is quite low.
This is looking like a good bottom and good reaction from it. Seems likely we are heading to new all time highs from here in a rally mode. Weekly close over the white 6 month average would give more confirmation for this, but even in the case of sideways or bigger retrace, I think the breakout area at 7500-7800 will hold.
First after the bottom we found support from the weekly range low, then had a strong reaction up which sealed the higher low after the bottom in, then closing above the averages using them as support. Very bullish.
Daily charts with few lines and with the daily RSI (relative strength indicator). Rally mode means that the daily RSI goes to close to 90 before sideways or retrace occurs. There are 2 examples from the history showing there.
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The author has written over a hundred bitcoin analyses in the span of five years and is very experienced in trading bitcoin.