Bitcoin price hasn’t moved much in the recent weeks. We are consolidating strongly inside a tight range. While the market is not trending it is better to sit on your hands instead of trading and getting chopped out of your money.
Weekly chart with moving averages, yearly opens and RSI (relative strength index) at the bottom of the chart.
We’ve had a lot of weekly candles with bodies close to the important $10.5k level. This looks like consolidation near the top which is mildly bullish, but more importantly we are still below the $10.5k level and consolidating strongly inside a well defined range.
Top of the range is $10.5k level and the bottom of the range is the 2020 yearly open at $7160. Shorter term range top level is the same $10.5k, but bottom level is closer at about $8.7k where we also have recent weekly candle bodies bottoms and the big moving average from 50 weeks (dotted yellow).
It’s easy to predict that if $10.5k breaks we are going up, probably at least to $13880 where the 2018 yearly open is before a retrace.
What comes to possible downside I’m inclined to think that if weekly closes below this $8.7k, then we have a likely chance to go to the 2020 yearly open at $7160. After close below $8.7k there could be a bounce before continuing down.
If we see a fast crash to $8k or even $7k then it will be probably a big enough long squeeze and price can recover and break $10.5k next.
I do not believe we will see a price below $7k. The 2020 yearly open will most likely hold in the weekly chart with the moving average from 100 weeks (dotted blue). The huge margin call cascade to $3.8k wiped enough margin longs so the market has no reason to give so good buying opportunities anymore.
Weekly chart from the start of the big bull market from $200 to $20k. Similar behaviour can be expected, if this is the start of the new bull market to a new all time high, which is the most likely scenario for me at the moment.