Technical analysis 2.12: Bitcoin bull might be a bit overheated


In the previous analysis, I talked about how to measure if the market is rising too fast and what would need to happen to see a retrace to cool the market off a little bit. I wrote;

‘If the weekly RSI rises to 85 or above while the price is close to the old all-time high, then the fast rise combined with the resistance level might give us enough selling pressure to turn the buying momentum and give us a retrace. A good target for a retrace has usually been the white moving average from 20 weeks.’

As we can see from the weekly chart above, the price did a new all-time high, now barely below, and the RSI is almost at 85. I think it hit 85 for a moment at the top. The rise has been relatively fast from testing the $10k about nine weeks ago, and this shows in the relative strength index.

The risk for a retrace is relatively high now. Significant supports for a bull market are at 2018 yearly open at $13880 and the white weekly moving average from 20 weeks now at $12650.

On the previous bull market, the retraces were usually 35-40%. There are examples in the weekly chart above with the RSI at the bottom of the chart. 30-40% would be today at $11918-13905. As you can see from the first chart, 2018 yearly open and the white moving average would be inside this range.

Close to 50 has been a good target for weekly RSI for these bull market corrections. This would show that the market has cooled off after a strong FOMO (fear of missing out) buying phase.

Now even if everything that I talked about now checks out for a correction, it is still risky to bet on counter-trend moves during the bull market. Timing these moves correctly can be tricky. It could have an exceptionally strong FOMO buying phase and go-to example, $30k or even $40k before retracing 30-40%. But on the other hand, I would not say it is the best time to buy with everything you have now if someone asks. Time to be a little bit cautious, at least.

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