Technical Analysis: How Strong is the Bitcoin Bull Run?

Here’s the weekly chart from the end of 2013 until today with moving averages; SMA50 (yellow), EMA20 (purple) and EMA8 (pink). There are also standard RSI14 (grey) and half year RSI26 (yellow).

I have been writing bitcoin price analyses for Bittiraha over 4 years, 102 in total and now I’m starting to do it here on Coinmotion’s blog too in English. I’ll start from longer term view and then we’ll see where we might be heading next on the shorter term.

Here’s the weekly chart from the end of 2013 until today with moving averages; SMA50 (yellow), EMA20 (purple) and EMA8 (pink). There are also standard RSI14 (grey) and half year RSI26 (yellow).

Using simple moving average to define bear and bull markets

I use the simple moving average from 50 weeks (SMA50) to define, if we are in a bull or bear market. Then in the bull market the exponential moving averages from 8 and 20 weeks (EMA8 and EMA20) have been proven to be good supports for the bull rally.

As we can see the current rally started to get a lot of strength once the weekly closed above the SMA50 and now the first correction after that on weekly chart (the red candle) stopped at the EMA8.

This kind of reaction is a sign of strength. There was only one similar correction on our previous bull market, which is shown on the chart above. Strong enough reaction from EMA8 so that the weekly candle closes above the previous red candle’s opening price.

 Daily chart with the bear market fibonacci, yellow lines that show the local tops of the bear market decline.

 

Standard daily RSI with 60 days RSI and trendlines that show the steepness of the current rise.

We do have bear divergence on the daily RSI and we are at the 38.2% fibonacci level and there is also daily ascending trendline here, but the weekly reaction from EMA8 is so strong that I suspect, that we have the power to go to at least where the next area of resistance is. That is at 50% fibonacci and the 11780 dollars top.

So we probably need more up before a bigger correction that likely goes to the weekly EMA20. The slower 60 days daily RSI (yellow) could go over 70 again and even make a bear div after that in this case.

 

Related articles

Start the discussion

Tilaa uutiskirjeemme
Haluatko kuulla ensimmäisten joukossa tuoteuutuuksistamme, saada super hyper erikoistarjouksia sekä oppia kryptovaluuttasektorista lisää eksklusiivisten markkinaraporttiemme kautta? Haluaisimme lähettää sinulle sähköpostia silloin ja tällöin – ei kuitenkaan liian usein – eli jos haluat päästä etuihin kiinni, täytä tietosi alapuolelle. Pysytään yhteyksissä! Oletko jo Coinmotionin käyttäjä? Voit muuttaa tilaustasi myös tilin asetuksissa.
Tilaa uutiskirjeemme täyttämällä tietosi
Lisätietoja tietojen käsittelystä löydät tietosuojalausekkeestamme
Suscríbete al boletín de noticias de Coinmotion
¿Quieres ser el primero en enterarte de nuestras novedades, recibir ofertas mega buenas y aprender más sobre el sector de las criptomonedas a través de informes exclusivos de mercado? Nos gustaría enviarte un email de vez en cuando – no demasiado a menudo – así que por favor rellena tus datos abajo. ¡Estamos en contacto! ¿Ya eres usuario de Coinmotion? Puedes gestionar tu suscripción a través de la configuración de la cuenta.
Suscríbete ahora rellenando tus datos aquí
Responsable del fichero: Prasos Oy. Finalidad: envío de información sobre productos y servicios propios al suscrito. Legitimación: consentimiento. Destinatarios: No se comunicarán los datos a terceros. Derechos: acceder, rectificar y suprimir los datos, así como otros derechos, como se explica en la información adicional. Puede consultar información adicional y detallada en nuestra Política de Privacidad.

Subscribe to Coinmotion Newsletter

Would you like to be the first one to hear about our product updates, receive super hyper special offers and learn more about cryptocurrencies through our exclusive market reports? We are happy to send you an email every now and then – not too often – so please fill your information below. Let’s stay in touch!

Are you already a Coinmotion user? You can also manage your subscription via account settings.

Subscribe now by filling your details here

Responsible for the file: Prasos Oy. Purpose: sending information about own products and services to the undersigned. Legitimation: consent. Recipients: The data will not be communicated to third parties. Rights: access, rectify and delete data, as well as other rights, as explained in the additional information. You can consult additional and detailed information in our Privacy Policy
Subscribe to Coinmotion Newsletter
Would you like to be the first one to hear about our product updates, receive super hyper special offers and learn more about cryptocurrencies through our exclusive market reports? We are happy to send you an email every now and then – not too often – so please fill your information below. Let’s stay in touch! Are you already a Coinmotion user? You can also manage your subscription via account settings.
Subscribe now by filling your details here
Responsible for the file: Prasos Oy. Purpose: sending information about own products and services to the undersigned. Legitimation: consent. Recipients: The data will not be communicated to third parties. Rights: access, rectify and delete data, as well as other rights, as explained in the additional information. You can consult additional and detailed information in our Privacy Policy