A few weeks back in my previous analysis, I wrote that ‘The yearly open is a strong support and quite close now at $29k, so that could be a good target for the correction.’. Price did go to test the yearly open at $29k and has now bounced back up. Let’s see what this means for future price action.
That last down move to the yearly open at $29k looked like it would break it and start a long squeeze closer to $24k because the preceding up move was not strong, and the test of the $29k support was already third in a row.
A break of $29k did not happen. Instead, the price reacted to it strongly, and we saw a powerful pump, which has had a retrace, and now we are seeing possible continuation up after the retrace.
Pink is moving average from the past 30 days (1-month average price), price is possibly now climbing back above it.
All this is looking bullish. The most bullish thing is that the big support at $29k is holding strong. We didn’t even see a fast dip lower before bouncing back above it. We just held above like it would be an impenetrable wall.
Daily RSI reached only a little below 50. Getting daily RSI to 30 would have been better, but it seems like the yearly open stopped that from happening, and now that we have a clear pump from the yearly open, it doesn’t make sense to keep on waiting for that daily RSI 30 to happen.
If we lose $32k, then it seems likely that the $29k support won’t hold for another test, and we could see a fast spike to lower levels. $24k-25k is the closest strong support. If this happens, then the most likely price will bounce fastback above the $29k level. But for now, there is no reason to think bearish.
Going below $29k and not bouncing back above relatively quickly would mean that bitcoin needs a longer correction before the market is ready for another buying frenzy. White moving average from 20 weeks is now at $21k, as you can see from the chart.
The next more significant resistances above the ATH are a 1 trillion dollar market cap at about $54k and the big round number at $100 000. Billions of dollars of demand is needed for these targets, but it seems like the demand is there and might be just getting bigger. Bitcoin is now big enough for billionaires to start trusting it, and billionaires can feel the FOMO too.